The Paradoxes of Green Industrial Policy in Southern Africa
Authors:
Donna Andrews (University of Cape Town), Daniel Chavez (TNI)
Abstract:
This case study examines the challenges of Southern Africa’s green industrial policy at the intersection of critical mineral wealth, energy transition needs, and structural economic vulnerabilities. Although the region – in particular South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Botswana- possesses significant resources for the global green transition (such as platinum, cobalt, lithium, and manganese), the shift toward sustainable industrialisation encounters tensions between export-driven extractivism and domestic beneficiation strategies. South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan and Presidential Climate Commission framework propose innovative governance strategies that aim to balance decarbonisation efforts with job preservation. However, communities dependent on mining face job losses without sufficient support for the transition, foreign firms predominantly control the emerging green hydrogen sector, and local content policies encounter implementation challenges. To ensure a successful and genuine ‘green’ transition, it is crucial to strengthen the state’s capacity, encourage democratic participation, and establish regional cooperation frameworks to avoid repeating past patterns of resource extraction that fail to create added value.
